Top Analyst: Bitcoin is 65% unlikely to crash

Bitcoin’s interrupted rally has increased the likelihood of a major pullback, according to independent analyst Vince Prince.

The TradingView.com author writes that there is a 35 percent chance that Bitcoin price will fall soon. He cites a textbook technical indicator that predicts declining reversal patterns.

The pattern known as „head and shoulder“ appears during an asset’s uptrend. Traders acknowledge it when they see three highs forming on a support-like baseline.

The middle peak is higher than the other two, so that it looks like a head hanging over two shoulders on each side – hence „Head and Shoulder“

The H&S patterns typically end in a breakout below the baseline, with a downward target well below the structure’s maximum elevation. Prince comments that Bitcoin forms a similar technical setup, with the left shoulder and head fully confirmed and the right shoulder partially fixed.

„Bitcoin is already being traded in overbought zones,“ he adds. “That doesn’t mean that it can move higher and make new highs. However, the downward prospect should by no means be underestimated. Bitcoin moves in zones in which a rapid reversal and change of direction can be established more easily. “

If the H&S pattern is valid, Bitcoin risks being about $ 1,600 below its baseline (the level between the high and the support). The yellow area in the graph above shows the ideal target area for the H&S outbreak.

What risks Bitcoin is exposed to

Prince’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin received involuntary support from the cryptocurrency futures market. According to Glassnode, the average „funding rate“ across all Bitcoin exchanges has risen to levels suggesting that traders may have been over-leveraged through open-ended contracts.

Measured every eight hours, the refinancing rate shows the cost of holding a bullish contract, that is, a long position. A positive value indicates that bulls are paying bears.

This increases the value of the perpetual contract via the Bitcoin spot rate. Hence, a very high refinancing rate signals that leverage is unduly skewed in favor of the bulls. It is an overbought condition.

An event of a pullback in the cash market can lead to massive long liquidations, which can lead to more price declines and higher volatility.

The optimistic perspective

However, Prince also believes in a limited corrective downtrend. He writes that Bitcoin could find support at the H&S neckline in order to rise higher again – and that could invalidate the entire trend reversal theory as a whole.

Vince’s conclusion:

„Since Bitcoin still has solid supports [near] the 65 EMA and the blue horizontal support, the bullish breakout has a greater 65% probability“

Its upward outlook sees Bitcoin at over $ 19,000.

I tassi di finanziamento Bitcoin aumentano in modo

I tassi di finanziamento Bitcoin aumentano in modo esponenziale fino a raggiungere i massimi settimanali come carichi di correzione

Il Bitcoin ha subito un calo rispetto ai massimi locali di 19.000 dollari. La moneta attualmente viene scambiata per 18.500 dollari, anche se oggi è stata scambiata fino a 17.500 dollari. Il rimbalzo ha sorpreso molti analisti, che pensavano che il Bitcoin avrebbe sostenuto una correzione più profonda nel range 15.000-16.000 dollari.

Eppure questo rimbalzo ha avuto un costo: i tassi di finanziamento dei mercati BTC e cripto sono alle stelle. Il tasso di finanziamento è la commissione Bitcoin Future che le posizioni long pagano regolarmente le posizioni short per garantire che il prezzo dei futures sia vicino al prezzo del mercato spot.

Il tasso di finanziamento Bitcoin esplode più alto

I tassi di finanziamento dei futures Bitcoin nelle principali borse hanno cominciato a salire, riferisce ByBt. ByBt è un tracciatore di derivati che segue i tassi di finanziamento, l’interesse aperto e altre metriche di riferimento per i mercati dei futures cripto-valuta.

Il tasso di finanziamento del mercato dei futures Bitcoin di Binance ha raggiunto lo 0,08% per otto ore, che è il più alto degli ultimi mesi.

Il tasso di finanziamento è sempre più alto anche su altre borse di alto livello, suggerendo che il Bitcoin potrebbe avere un eccesso di leva finanziaria sul lato lungo.

Pressione istituzionale e di vendita al dettaglio per mantenere i prezzi a galla

Gli analisti pensano che la pressione degli acquisti istituzionali e al dettaglio di Bitcoin potrebbe finire per far salire i prezzi di lunedì. Avi Felman di BlockTower Capital ha detto recentemente sulle prospettive di un ritorno della pressione di acquisto istituzionale nei giorni feriali:

„Passa il fine settimana e i TWAP ritornano“

Ci sono anche segnali di un crescente interesse da parte del commercio al dettaglio, che potrebbe essere in grado di impedire che il Bitcoin si corregga a causa di lunghe perdite di arresto/chiusure a cascata.

L’analisi di Pantera Capital ha rilevato che gli utenti di PayPal da soli possono acquistare più Bitcoin di quanti ne vengano estratti ogni giorno. Si prevede che questa carenza di offerta farà salire drasticamente i prezzi nelle settimane e nei mesi a venire.

South Korea banned privacy coin from exchanges

South Korea’s Financial Services Commission has taken on the so-called „dark coin“, i.e. privacy-oriented cryptocurrency

South Korea’s Financial Services Commission has announced that service providers based on virtual assets will no longer be able to operate with Crypto Comeback Pro that present a high risk of money laundering. The institution recently updated its Special Payment Act, the law regulating the cryptocurrency sector in South Korea.

In particular, the Financial Services Commission has launched itself against the so-called „dark coin“, i.e. privacy oriented cryptocurrencies, as transactions made with such currencies are particularly difficult to trace. The new law could therefore hinder the use of Zcash (ZEC), Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) in Korea.

The amendments to the Special Payment Act will come into force from March next year. The legislation also requires the use of more stringent Know Your Customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) policies by local crypto-currency exchanges: in addition to no longer being able to operate with privacy coin, virtual asset-based service providers will have to confirm the names of their customers and verify other personal data, such as their national identification number.

Many South Korean exchanges already do not list privacy coin on their platforms due to international regulations. In September last year, the OKEx exchange announced the removal of ZEC, XMR, DASH, Horizen (ZEN) and Super Bitcoin (SBTC), citing the Financial Action Task Force’s new guidelines as justification. In the same month, the local Upbit exchange ceased support for three privacy-focused cryptocurrency exchanges.

Meanwhile, the South Korean central bank continues to work on its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). According to an article recently published in The Korea Times, the first tests for the digital won will begin next year:

„The CBDC will be issued and distributed in a virtual environment, where we will test a range of transaction scenarios in a wide variety of circumstances“.

DeFi tokens continue to suffer as Bitcoin dominates

DeFi tokens continue to fall as the price of BTC rises.

Many leading tokens have lost over 70% since their all-time highs.

DeFi TVL still remains high at over $ 11 billion.

Much of the interest and media madness surrounding the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry that emerged last summer has certainly started to wane, especially when it comes to token prices. Many of the top performing DeFi assets are still bleeding despite the uptrend in the larger cryptocurrency market.

In terms of total locked-in value, the One Bitcoin a Day space still looks bullish with only an 8% drop in crypto collateral in the ecosystem from its all-time high. The current figure stands at $ 11.3 billion according to DeFi Pulse, however, the dollar-denominated measure that remains high could be due to Ethereum prices recovering $ 400.

The same cannot be said of the majority of DeFi-related tokens, however, as most continue to drain while Bitcoin’s market share slowly consumes them. Messari researcher Jack Purdy attributes this to an oversaturation of projects combined with insufficient new capital entering space.

The carnage continues.

This is what happens when there are too many projects with not enough money going into the space.

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Le dump DeFi continue

The funds that were randomly tossed into DeFi tokens over the summer appear to be moving towards Bitcoin as BTC recently hit an almost three-year high of $ 14,400.

Looking at top tokens by protocol, Uniswap’s UNI suffers among the rest with another 5% drop so far in the day and is trading for $ 1.82.

Since its historic high of nearly $ 8 in mid-September, the UNI has lost 76%. That decline may well get even worse when token farming ends on November 17 and millions of dollars are thrown into the market.

$ UNI – Now under $ 2, not surprisingly. When you give away millions of tokens for free, you can’t be surprised when they all start selling. I just hope people sold when they had a much higher price.

Second in terms of TVL protocol is the MakerDAO crypto mainstay, which is holding up well as its native MKR token has remained relatively stable in terms of price over the past year.

Wrapped Bitcoin is third in terms of TVL and it has also risen to record highs of over $ 2 billion in tokenized BTC on Ethereum.

No more suffering on the horizon

Compound Finance’s COMP token continues to take a hit with a 74% drop from its peak, while Aave’s 100-fold supply reduction program hasn’t stopped its new asset from dumping 52 % since last month.

The Curve DAO token, CRV, is in a world of suffering losing an additional 4% today and an agonizing 98% since its all-time high during the DeFi media madness in mid-August. Synthetix is up for the year but has lost another 64% from its peak of $ 7.50 at the end of August.

La rentabilidad de la minería de Bitcoin sube a un máximo de seis meses

El aumento del precio de bitcoin ha provocado un aumento de los ingresos de los mineros. A fines de octubre, ganaron $ 353 millones (+ 8%), como informaron anteriormente los analistas de Bitcoin Evolution.

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Los ingresos de los mineros han vuelto a los niveles observados en el período previo al llamado halving de mayo (reducción de la recompensa por extraer un bloque).

En los primeros cinco días de noviembre, los ingresos de los mineros de bitcoin ya ascendieron a casi $ 21 millones. La última vez que recibieron aproximadamente los mismos beneficios a principios de mayo de 2020.

Huawei presenta un teléfono inteligente con billetera digital de yuanes incorporada

Los analistas atribuyen esta tendencia al repunte en curso de bitcoin. Paralelamente, ha habido un aumento en las tarifas por procesar transacciones en la red BTC. Desde finales de octubre, las tarifas han aumentado casi un 200%. Desde principios de noviembre, los mineros han ganado $ 4,15 millones por el procesamiento de comisiones, que es aproximadamente el 20% de sus ingresos totales.

El equipo de CryptoQuant cree que muchos grupos de minería pronto comenzarán a vender sus bitcoins acumulados para sacar provecho del rally de noviembre.

Anteriormente, el CEO de CryptoQuant, Ki Yang Joo, tuiteó que los grandes titulares de criptomonedas ya han comenzado a llevar BTC a los intercambios. Esa es una señal alarmante para el mercado. Sin embargo, el mismo experto cree que los mineros intentarán esperar un precio de bitcoin más alto para aprovecharlo al máximo.